“Baby Reindeer” stars Richard Gadd and Jessica Gunning are currently the odds-on favorites to take home the Emmys for Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actor and Best Limited Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress, respectively, on Sept. 15. If both prevail, “Baby Reindeer” will join a very small list of programs that have bagged both prizes.
Since the limited series/TV movie supporting acting categories were created in 1975, only four programs have scored this double. The first to do it was the telefilm “Promise” (1986) with victories for James Woods and Piper Laurie. It was then followed by the 1996 TV movie “Rasputin: Dark Servant of Destiny” (Alan Rickman and Greta Scacchi) and the two-part miniseries “George Wallace” in 1998 (Gary Sinise and Mare Winningham).
“Angels in America” rounds out the quartet, having picked up trophies for Al Pacino in lead and Mary Louise-Parker in supporting in 2004. But unlike the three aforementioned titles, the HBO miniseries raked in additional acting wins for Meryl Streep in actress and Jeffrey Wright in supporting actor, becoming the first program to sweep all four main acting categories in any of the major genres (comedy, drama and limited) and remains as the only one to do it in limited.
This would make “Baby Reindeer” just the fifth program and third series to nab actor and supporting actress statuettes in limited and the first to do it under the popular vote system. Under this system — which was introduced in 2016 after the TV academy got rid of the preferential ballot — there have only been five instances in which a program that won either of the two prizes was also up for the other: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (nominated for Darren Criss in lead and Penélope Cruz and Judith Light in supporting) in 2018, “When They See Us” (lead: Jharrel Jerome; supporting: Vera Farmiga and Marsha Stephanie Blake) in 2019, “Dopesick” (lead: Michael Keaton; supporting: Kaitlyn Dever and Winningham) in 2022, and “Beef” (lead: Steven Yeun; supporting: Maria Bello) and “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (lead: Evan Peters; supporting: Niecy Nash-Betts) in 2023.
In four of those five instances, the male lead was triumphant, with the outlier being “Dahmer,” which prevailed for Nash-Betts. What Nash-Betts and the four victorious leads have in common is that they had leading odds in their races heading into Emmy night. In all but two cases, they were also the only predicted acting win for their shows, with the exceptions being Criss and Yeun, each of whom had one castmate who was also projected to prevail — the former in Cruz, but “Godless'” Merritt Wever won; the latter, in Ali Wong, who won, but in lead. So suffice it to say, it probably helps your case to be regarded as the frontrunner in your category.
Fortunately for Gadd (82/25 odds) and Gunning (9/2), they’re both the overwhelming favorites in their races. Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) and Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) are their closest rivals at 19/5 and 11/2, respectively. Of course, perception alone is unlikely to secure them the wins, but it’s also far from the only factor working in their favor. A surprise word-of-mouth success following its low-key April 11 drop on Netflix, “Baby Reindeer” quickly became a top limited series contender after Netflix chose to submit it at the Primetime Emmys. An 11-time nominee, the seven-part drama that Gadd adapted from his autobiographical one-man show of the same name is now the predicted winner in multiple categories, including series, writing and directing. Also cited for supporting players Nava Mau and Tom Goodman-Hill, it’s tied with “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” as the limited series with the most acting bids at four and is the only one to land recognition for its entire main cast. So not only does it clearly have momentum on its side, it also has strong support from the TV academy’s acting branch.
Gadd and Gunning have also both received individual praise for their work on the series and give the type of big, emotion-laden performances that voters tend to eat up. Of the two, Gadd arguably has the stronger challenger in Scott, whose show over-performed with 13 total nominations, including a surprise bid for Dakota Fanning in supporting actress, and whose turn as the titular con artist has also been met with great acclaim. But Gadd could be helped by playing the more sympathetic character of the two and having also written his (entire) show, as actors may also want to recognize him for the latter achievement and have no other place to do so since the Emmys have branch-specific voting in all non-program categories. So if voters are as high on “Baby Reindeer” as our odds are predicting them to be, you can probably expect both Gadd and Gunning to sleigh to victories.
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